A forecast you can explain to anyone.

The situation.

A forecast about bankruptcies hits business owners personally. So the bank wanted more than a number in a press release. It had to be a story readers understand, with answers to two questions: why now, and what does this mean for me?

What we found.

Market signals, scattered numbers and plenty of in-house expertise. But no coherent story ready to publish. Methodology, editing and visualization sat with different people, at different desks.

Our approach.

We didn't start with the data, but with the reader's question: how is the hospitality sector doing, and what will we see in the coming months?

• Brought the relevant indicators together and chose definitions simple enough to stick with
• Built a transparent method for reaching a forecast. No black box, but an approach you can read in three paragraphs
• A range instead of a single number, because you shouldn't suggest precision you don't have
• Added scenarios, from flat recovery to a faster decline, with what each one means in concrete terms

How we presented it.

A main article with headings that invite you to keep reading. Charts with ranges, short captions and source references, so every number can be checked. Plus a one-page factsheet with the key figures and a list of frequently asked questions for press and business owners.

What it delivered.

An analysis that explains itself. Honest about uncertainty, easy to follow in its method, and useful for the people it is about. Exactly what sector insight from a bank should be.